CS2 Case House Edges: We Measured 6,788 Cases on 27 Sites
Every paid case on 27 CS2 case sites, measured from each site's own prices and odds. The average is 10.1%, CS2Skin keeps just 5%, and some cases keep 45%.
Updated
Case sites set the price of every case and the value of every item in it, and they publish the odds. That's all you need to work out what a case keeps. So we did it for every paid case on 27 CS2 case sites: 6,788 cases, measured in October 2026.
The short answer
- Across all 6,788 cases, the average house edge is 10.1%. Open $100 worth of cases and you get about $89.90 back on average.
- CS2Skin keeps the least: 5.0% on average. Then CSGOFast (7.2%), Waste.gg (7.6%), DatDrop (8.3%) and CSGOEmpire (8.8%).
- CaseDrop keeps by far the most: 19.3%, and not one of its cases is below 16.7%. Then Hunt.gg (13.3%), Hellcase and Key-Drop (12.5%).
- 58 cases keep more than 20%. The worst, Hellcase's Primeiro Ataque, keeps 45%.
- Most sites sit right at 10%. That's the industry standard, and 14 of the 27 sites average between 9.5% and 10.6%.
Every site, ranked
| Site | Cases measured | Average edge | Lowest case | Highest case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS2Skin | 217 | 5.0% | 3.1% | 6.9% |
| CSGOFast | 190 | 7.2% | 4.7% | 10.4% |
| Waste.gg | 15 | 7.6% | 5.2% | 9.1% |
| DatDrop | 270 | 8.3% | 8.0% | 10.7% |
| CSGOEmpire | 163 | 8.8% | 7.1% | 9.6% |
| CSGORoll | 924 | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% |
| SkinRave | 477 | 9.6% | 4.0% | 11.4% |
| Clash.gg | 729 | 9.9% | 8.7% | 14.2% |
| Plunder | 28 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| CSGOGem | 265 | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.4% |
| CSGOWin | 24 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| CSGold | 153 | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.3% |
| Skin.Club | 264 | 10.0% | 9.1% | 11.1% |
| SKIN.FANS | 50 | 10.0% | 9.9% | 11.4% |
| 500 Casino | 201 | 10.0% | 9.9% | 11.5% |
| CSGOLuck | 304 | 10.1% | 6.5% | 13.6% |
| Rain.gg | 675 | 10.3% | 10.0% | 22.9% |
| GGSkins | 130 | 10.3% | 7.5% | 12.7% |
| Chicken.gg | 50 | 10.4% | 10.0% | 15.4% |
| CSBattle | 30 | 10.6% | 8.9% | 13.5% |
| CSGO.net | 314 | 11.5% | 3.8% | 25.9% |
| G4Skins | 278 | 11.8% | 10.8% | 16.9% |
| CaseHug | 290 | 12.4% | 9.5% | 14.2% |
| Hellcase | 363 | 12.5% | 5.9% | 45.0% |
| Key-Drop | 166 | 12.5% | 9.0% | 15.2% |
| Hunt.gg | 169 | 13.3% | 10.0% | 15.2% |
| CaseDrop | 49 | 19.3% | 16.7% | 32.7% |
Some sites price their cases in their own coins (CSGORoll, CSGOEmpire, CSGOFast, CSGOLuck, CSGold, 500 Casino) and CaseDrop in Polish złoty. The edge is a share of the price, so the currency doesn't change it.
The average hides the outliers
Most sites price almost every case the same way. All 924 of CSGORoll's cases sit between 8.7% and 9.5%, and every DatDrop case sits between 8.0% and 10.7%. On those sites, which case you open makes little difference to what you lose on average.
Three sites are different:
- CaseDrop. Every case keeps at least 16.7%, and seven keep more than 20%, up to 32.7% on its CHAMPION case. That's nearly double the industry standard on every opening.
- Hellcase. Most of its cases keep 11% to 12%, but five keep more than 20%. The worst is Primeiro Ataque, a $0.30 case that keeps 45%: about 94% of its openings give you an item worth less than the case.
- CSGO.net. Its median case keeps 9.1%, below the usual 10%, but 45 of its 314 cases keep more than 20%, up to 25.9% on a cheap knife "mining" case. It also has one of the lowest-edge cases we found: 3.8%.
Cheap cases are often the worst value
On 17 of the 27 sites, the case with the highest edge costs less than one dollar (or less than one of the site's coins). Hellcase's Primeiro Ataque costs $0.30 and keeps 45%. Rain.gg's Wasteland costs $0.07 and keeps 22.9%. Clash.gg's Dream Big costs $0.08 and keeps 14.2%. If you like opening cheap cases, check the edge on the review first: every review with measured cases lists the worst and best value cases.
How we measured
For every case, we multiply each item's price on the site by its drop chance and add them up. That's what one opening is worth on average. Divide it by the case price and you have the return to player; the house edge is the rest.
- The site's own prices. We use the value each site gives its items, not Steam Market prices. Case sites often price items above what they'd sell for elsewhere, so the real cost to you is a little higher than these numbers, not lower. On Key-Drop, an MP9 we opened was valued at $1.47; the cheapest one on the big marketplaces was about $0.90.
- Every paid case. Free, level and gold cases are left out, because you don't pay money to open them. So is any case whose odds don't add up to 100%.
- Checked against the sites. DatDrop shows its own "commission" on every case page, and our numbers match it exactly.
- CS2 skins only. Mystery box sites with real-world items (like HypeDrop) are measured on their own reviews, not in this list.
The full method, with a calculator for checking any case yourself, is on our house edge page. The CS2 case study has the live numbers for every site, and we re-measure every month.
Sites we couldn't measure
- No odds on the case pages: Farmskins, CSGOCases, Daddyskins and GGDrop don't show drop chances, so there's nothing to measure.
- Odds but no values: KnifeX shows the odds but not what the items are worth.
- Behind a login or hidden: CSGOBig, Bloodycase and Insane only show the numbers to logged-in players. We're collecting screenshots from our own accounts.
- Held back: SkinsLuck's own numbers work out to about a 50% edge. That's so far out of line that we're confirming it on the site before we publish it.
What it means for you
A 10% edge means that over many openings you lose about a tenth of what you spend. Any single case can still land far above or below that. Free cases and deposit bonuses from a promo code take some of the sting out, but they don't change the maths. Set a budget before you open anything, and read our responsible gambling page if it stops being fun.