How we review / House edge
How we calculate house edge
House edge is the share of every bet a site keeps over time. We work it out from each site's own prices and odds, and you can check any case, upgrade or game yourself with the calculator below.
House edge calculator
Pick what you're playing and fill in the numbers the site shows you. Everything stays in your browser.
Items in the case (4)
House edge
10.5%
- Expected value
- $0.895
- Return to player
- 89.5%
- Chances add up to
- 100%
- Less than you paid
- 65% of opens
What house edge means
If a site keeps a 10% edge, then for every $100 you spend there you get about $90 back on average. That's the average over thousands of opens or bets. A single case can pay out far more or far less, which is what makes it gambling.
The other side of it is return to player (RTP): 100% minus the edge. A 10% edge means a 90% RTP. Lower edge, better for you.
How we measure cases
Every case lists its items and the chance of getting each one. Multiply each item's price by its chance and add them up, and you have the case's expected value: what one open is worth on average. Compare that with the case price.
expected value = sum of (item price × drop chance)
house edge = 100% − (expected value ÷ case price)
We use the site's own item prices, the value the case shows for each item, not Steam Market or marketplace prices and not what the site pays when you cash out. The site sets both the case price and the item prices, so comparing the two shows what it keeps by its own numbers. Case sites often price items above what they'd sell for elsewhere, so the real cost to you is usually a little higher than the number we show, never lower.
We do this for every case on the site, not a handful we picked, and take the average. We read the prices and chances from the site's own public case pages, skip cases you can't open, and only count a case when its chances add up to 100%. We re-measure every month, so the numbers on our reviews stay current.
Most case sites land around 10%. The average hides the outliers, though: a site can sit at 12% overall and still have a few cases that keep 25% or more. That's why every review with measured cases has an open button next to the number, listing the worst and best value cases.
Example
A $1.00 case with four items (the calculator starts with this one):
| Item price | Chance | Price × chance |
|---|---|---|
| $0.30 | 65% | $0.195 |
| $1.00 | 25% | $0.250 |
| $3.00 | 9% | $0.270 |
| $18.00 | 1% | $0.180 |
| Expected value | $0.895 | |
$0.895 back for every $1.00 means an RTP of 89.5% and a house edge of 10.5%. Also worth knowing: 65% of opens give you an item worth less than the case.
Upgrades
On an upgrader you put in a skin and aim for a more expensive one. A fair upgrade from $10 to $20 would win half the time, because the target is worth twice as much. Sites show a slightly lower chance, and the gap is their edge.
house edge = 100% − (chance shown × target value ÷ your value)
A $10 to $20 upgrade at 45% gives 45% × 2 = 90% RTP, so a 10% edge. Try a few targets on the same site: the edge is usually the same for every upgrade, so one check tells you a lot.
Roulette, dice, coinflip and other games
Games with fixed payouts need no measuring. The edge follows from the rules: chance to win times payout gives the RTP.
house edge = 100% − (chance to win × payout)
- Roulette with 15 slots (7 red, 7 black, 1 green, green pays 14x): red wins 7 in 15 times and pays 2x, so the RTP is 93.33% and the edge 6.67%. Green works out the same: 1 in 15 times 14x.
- Dice: a 49.5% roll that pays 2x has a 1% edge.
- Coinflip and other player-vs-player games: you play another player at 50/50 and the site takes a cut of the pot. A win that pays 1.9x instead of 2x means a 5% edge.
- Crash, limbo, mines and plinko: the payout formula is usually on the site's provably fair page, and it states the edge.
Check a case yourself
- Open the case page on the site and find the list of items with their drop chances. Most sites show it under the case or behind an odds button.
- Write down the case price, and each item's price and chance. Use the price the site shows, not the Steam price.
- Fill them into the calculator, or paste the list in one go.
- Check that the chances add up to 100%. If they don't, an item is missing and the result will be off.
Some items come in several wear levels with their own chances (Factory New, Minimal Wear and so on). Count each one as its own line.
House edges across 36 sites
Every number we have, side by side. Cases are our own measurement; the rest is what each site publishes or what we worked out from its own odds and payouts. Open a review for the source of each number. A dash means we don't have that number yet, or the site doesn't offer the game.
| Site | Cases | Upgrader | Dice | Crash | Plinko | Mines | Roulette |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500 Casino | 10% | – | 1% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 6.66% |
| Clash.gg | 10% | 7.3% | – | 8.65% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% |
| RustClash | 10% | 7.3% | – | 8.65% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% |
| Rustreaper | 6% | – | 2% | 1% | 3.5% | 3% | 2.73% |
| SkinRave | 4-10% | 6% | – | 4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 2% |
| Duelbits | – | – | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2.7% |
| Shuffle | – | – | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2.7% |
| Stake | – | – | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2.7% |
| CS2Skin | 5% | – | – | 5% | – | 5% | 5% |
| Flush.com | – | – | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | – |
| Gamdom | – | – | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | – |
| Plunder | 10% | 10% | – | – | – | 10% | 6.67% |
| Thrill.com | – | – | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – |
| Winna | – | – | 1% | – | 1% | 2% | 2.7% |
| BC.Game | – | – | 2% | 1% | 2% | – | – |
| Cases.gg | 10% | 10% | – | 6.5% | – | – | – |
| Duel.com | – | – | 0% | 0% | – | 0% | – |
| Roobet | – | – | 1% | – | 1% | 4% | – |
| CSGOEmpire | 8.8% | – | – | – | – | – | 6.66% |
| CSGORoll | – | – | 5% | – | – | – | 6.66% |
| AceBet | – | – | 1% | – | – | – | – |
| Chips.gg | – | – | 1% | – | – | – | – |
| CSBattle | – | – | – | – | 10.9% | – | – |
| CSGOLuck | – | – | – | – | 6% | – | – |
| CSGOWin | – | – | – | – | 1% | – | – |
| Degen | – | – | 1% | – | – | – | – |
| Hellcase | – | 10% | – | – | – | – | – |
| KnifeX | – | – | 4.5% | – | – | – | – |
| PLG.bet | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6.6% |
| Rainbet | – | – | 1% | – | – | – | – |
| Roulo | – | – | 1% | – | – | – | – |
| RustBattle | – | – | – | – | 10.9% | – | – |
| RustNeo | – | – | – | – | 4.5% | – | – |
| RustyLoot | – | – | – | – | 4.7% | – | – |
| Upgrader.com | – | – | – | – | 10.3% | – | – |
| Waste.gg | – | – | 3% | – | – | – | – |
Cases column: average across every case we measured on that site. Roulette includes double and roll wheels.
House edge is one part of a review. See how we review for the rest, and play responsibly: over time, the edge always wins.