What are the odds of crash reaching 2x?

49.5% at a 1% house edge: the chance to reach x is 0.99 / x. 1.5x is reached 66% of the time, 10x 9.9% and 100x 0.99%.

How is the crash point decided?

Before the round starts. On Stake each round's hash comes from a chain of 10 million SHA-256 hashes fixed in advance, combined with a Bitcoin block hash chosen before the chain was used, and turned into a crash point with a published formula.

Is there a crash strategy?

Not one that beats the edge. Every cash-out target keeps the same house edge, and rounds are independent, so waiting for a run of low crashes doesn't make a high one more likely.

Why does crash sometimes bust at 1.00x?

That's where the house edge comes from on many sites: some rounds end at 1.00x before anyone can cash out. On Stake the formula gives a crash point of at least 1.00x and keeps 1%. 500 Casino says 6% of its rounds crash instantly at 1x.

Crash Odds Calculator

See the chance that a crash round gets to your cash-out multiplier, and what the house edge costs over many rounds.

18+ · Gambling can be addictive. The house edge means you lose over time.

Cash out at (x)House edge (%)BetNumber of bets

Win chance: 49.5%
Multiplier: 2.00x; fair: 2.0202x
Win pays: 20.00; profit 10.00
Expected loss, 100 bets: 10.00; of 1,000.00 wagered

At least one win in 100 bets: 100%
Win 10 in a row: 0.0883%
Bets for an even chance of one win: 2

How to use it

Enter the multiplier you cash out at (auto cash-out).
Pick the site's house edge, or type your own.
Add your bet and number of rounds.
Read the chance to reach it, the payout and the expected loss. Copy the URL to share it.

The crash formula

chance to reach x = (1 - house edge) / x
Stake: crash point = max(1, 2^32 / (int + 1) x 0.99)

In Stake's published method, int is the first 8 hex characters of HMAC-SHA256(game hash, salt) read as a number. The game hashes are a chain of 10 million SHA-256 hashes played in reverse, and the salt is the hash of a Bitcoin block that hadn't been mined when the chain was published, so neither Stake nor players could pick crash points. The chance that 2^32 / (int + 1) x 0.99 is at least x works out to 0.99 / x.

Every setting keeps the same house edge, so no target or win chance is "better" on average. Over many bets you lose about bet x house edge per bet: 1 for every 100 wagered at 1%. Lower win chances only make the swings bigger.

Crash odds table

Cash out at	Chance at 1%	Fair (0%)
1.01x	98.02%	99.01%
1.10x	90%	90.91%
1.50x	66%	66.67%
2.00x	49.5%	50%
3.00x	33%	33.33%
5.00x	19.8%	20%
10.00x	9.9%	10%
25.00x	3.96%	4%
50.00x	1.98%	2%
100.00x	0.99%	1%
1,000.00x	0.099%	0.1%
10,000.00x	1 in 10,101	0.01%

Sources: Stake crash (1% house edge); Stake's crash seeding event; 500 Casino house edges. The probabilities are arithmetic on those rules.

Compare sites on our crash gambling sites page. Odds for the other games: Dice, Limbo, Plinko, Keno, HiLo. Set a budget before you play, and see our responsible gambling page if it stops being fun.

FAQ

What are the odds of crash reaching 2x?: 49.5% at a 1% house edge: the chance to reach x is 0.99 / x. 1.5x is reached 66% of the time, 10x 9.9% and 100x 0.99%.
How is the crash point decided?: Before the round starts. On Stake each round's hash comes from a chain of 10 million SHA-256 hashes fixed in advance, combined with a Bitcoin block hash chosen before the chain was used, and turned into a crash point with a published formula.
Is there a crash strategy?: Not one that beats the edge. Every cash-out target keeps the same house edge, and rounds are independent, so waiting for a run of low crashes doesn't make a high one more likely.
Why does crash sometimes bust at 1.00x?: That's where the house edge comes from on many sites: some rounds end at 1.00x before anyone can cash out. On Stake the formula gives a crash point of at least 1.00x and keeps 1%. 500 Casino says 6% of its rounds crash instantly at 1x.

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