What are the odds of hitting 1000x in plinko?

On Stake's 16-row high risk board, 1,000x is either edge slot. Each edge has a 1 in 65,536 chance (1/2^16), so either one is 1 in 32,768.

Which plinko risk level is best?

None on average: every Stake table pays back about 99%. High and expert risk move that 99% into rare big slots, so most drops lose more; low risk pays something back on most drops.

On provably fair sites, yes: each row's left or right bounce comes from your seeds, one random number per row. The physics on screen is only an animation of a path that was already set.

How are plinko odds calculated?

Each row sends the ball left or right with a 50% chance, so the chance of landing k slots from the left on n rows is C(n, k) / 2^n. The middle slots are by far the most likely.

Plinko Odds Calculator

The chance the ball lands in each plinko slot, with Stake's payout table for every row count and risk level, the RTP and what each drop costs on average.

18+ · Gambling can be addictive. The house edge means you lose over time.

Rows

Risk

Bet

RTP: 99.00%; house edge 1.00%
Top multiplier: 16x; chance 1 in 32,768 (either edge)
Get at least your bet back: 80.36%; ball lands on 1x or more
Expected loss per drop: 0.01; per 1.00 bet

Slot	Multiplier	Chance	Adds to RTP
1	16x	1 in 65,536	0.02%
2	9x	0.0244%	0.22%
3	2x	0.1831%	0.37%
4	1.4x	0.8545%	1.20%
5	1.4x	2.78%	3.89%
6	1.2x	6.67%	8.00%
7	1.1x	12.22%	13.44%
8	1x	17.46%	17.46%
9	0.5x	19.64%	9.82%
10	1x	17.46%	17.46%
11	1.1x	12.22%	13.44%
12	1.2x	6.67%	8.00%
13	1.4x	2.78%	3.89%
14	1.4x	0.8545%	1.20%
15	2x	0.1831%	0.37%
16	9x	0.0244%	0.22%
17	16x	1 in 65,536	0.02%

Stake's 16-row low risk table. Slots are numbered from the left.

How to use it

Pick the number of rows (8 to 16).
Pick the risk level.
Enter your bet.
Read each slot's chance and multiplier, the RTP and the chance of getting at least your bet back. Copy the URL to share it.

The plinko formula

chance of slot k = C(rows, k) / 2^rows
RTP = sum of chance x multiplier over all slots

Stake makes one random number per row; below 0.5 the ball goes left, otherwise right. Landing k slots from the left means k rights, which is the binomial chance above. On 16 rows the middle slot comes up 19.64% of the time and each edge slot 1 in 65,536.

RTP of every Stake plinko table

Worked out from Stake's payout tables and the slot chances. All of them pay back about 99%, Stake's stated 1% edge, up to rounding.

Rows	Low (top)	Medium (top)	High (top)	Expert (top)
8	98.98% (5.6x)	98.91% (13x)	99.06% (29x)	98.98% (50x)
9	98.98% (5.6x)	99.14% (18x)	99.06% (43x)	99.06% (100x)
10	99.00% (8.9x)	98.91% (22x)	99.06% (76x)	98.95% (201x)
11	99.00% (8.4x)	99.02% (24x)	99.16% (120x)	98.99% (324x)
12	98.98% (10x)	98.99% (33x)	99.12% (170x)	99.04% (619x)
13	99.00% (8.1x)	98.99% (43x)	99.09% (260x)	99.01% (1,012x)
14	99.00% (7.1x)	98.99% (58x)	98.98% (420x)	99.01% (2,369x)
15	99.00% (15x)	99.00% (88x)	99.03% (620x)	99.01% (5,000x)
16	99.00% (16x)	98.99% (110x)	98.98% (1,000x)	99.00% (10,000x)

Other sites set their own tables, so their RTP can differ a lot: we worked out 94% on one CS2 site's 16-row board and under 90% on another's 8-row board. Check the multipliers on the site against the slot chances above.

Sources: Stake plinko (payout tables and 1% house edge); Stake's provably fair game events. The probabilities are arithmetic on those rules.

Compare sites on our plinko gambling sites page. Odds for the other games: Dice, Limbo, Crash, Keno, HiLo. Set a budget before you play, and see our responsible gambling page if it stops being fun.

FAQ

What are the odds of hitting 1000x in plinko?: On Stake's 16-row high risk board, 1,000x is either edge slot. Each edge has a 1 in 65,536 chance (1/2^16), so either one is 1 in 32,768.
Which plinko risk level is best?: None on average: every Stake table pays back about 99%. High and expert risk move that 99% into rare big slots, so most drops lose more; low risk pays something back on most drops.
Is plinko random?: On provably fair sites, yes: each row's left or right bounce comes from your seeds, one random number per row. The physics on screen is only an animation of a path that was already set.
How are plinko odds calculated?: Each row sends the ball left or right with a 50% chance, so the chance of landing k slots from the left on n rows is C(n, k) / 2^n. The middle slots are by far the most likely.

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