CS2 Case Calculator
18+ · Gambling can be addictive. The house edge means you lose over time.
- Cost to open
- $3.02
- Average drop value
- $1.07
- Return (ROI)
- -64.6%
- Chance it pays for itself
- 4.5%
One Fever Case opening costs $3.02 ($0.53 case + $2.49 key) and gives back $1.07 on average: you keep 35.4% of what you spend and lose $1.95 per opening over time. 4.5% of openings drop something worth at least the $3.02 you paid, and 5.2% drop at least half of it.
| Grade | Odds | Items | Average value | Cheapest to dearest | Share of the average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | 7 | $0.15 | $0.10 to $0.22 | 11.2% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 5 | $0.60 | $0.54 to $0.63 | 8.9% |
| Classified | 3.20% | 3 | $5.03 | $4.56 to $5.32 | 15.0% |
| Covert | 0.64% | 2 | $45.34 | $40.74 to $49.94 | 27.1% |
| Knife or gloves | 0.26% | 28 | $154.20 | $40.78 to $547.79 | 37.5% |
- You spend
- $30.20
- Expected back
- $10.70
- Knife or gloves at least once
- 2.6%
- Covert at least once
- 6.2%
Knife or gloves is 1 in 385 per opening, a Covert 1 in 156. Each opening is independent: opening more doesn't make the next one luckier.
Every skin in the Fever Case, with its chance and value (17, plus 28 knives or gloves)
| Item | Chance | Average value |
|---|---|---|
| AWP | Printstream | 0.320% | $49.94 |
| FAMAS | Bad Trip | 0.320% | $40.74 |
| Glock-18 | Shinobu | 1.067% | $5.32 |
| AK-47 | Searing Rage | 1.067% | $5.21 |
| UMP-45 | K.O. Factory | 1.067% | $4.56 |
| Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike | 3.196% | $0.63 |
| Nova | Rising Sun | 3.196% | $0.62 |
| P90 | Wave Breaker | 3.196% | $0.61 |
| Galil AR | Control | 3.196% | $0.59 |
| Zeus x27 | Tosai | 3.196% | $0.54 |
| USP-S | PC-GRN | 11.420% | $0.22 |
| M4A4 | Choppa | 11.420% | $0.19 |
| SSG 08 | Memorial | 11.420% | $0.17 |
| MP9 | Nexus | 11.420% | $0.13 |
| XM1014 | Mockingbird | 11.420% | $0.12 |
| P2000 | Sure Grip | 11.420% | $0.11 |
| MAG-7 | Resupply | 11.420% | $0.10 |
How to use it
- Pick a case. Its market price fills in; type your own case price if you paid something else.
- Set the key price ($2.49 in the US store) if yours differs.
- Read the return and the chance to profit, and the grade table for where the average comes from.
- Enter how many cases you plan to open to see the total spend, the expected return and your chance of a knife.
- The address bar keeps your inputs: copy it to share the result.
Every CS2 case ranked by return
At today's prices with a $2.49 key. "Lost" is the share of what you pay (case plus key) that doesn't come back on average.
| Case | Cost to open | Average drop | Return | Lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | $12.12 | $8.34 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $13.62 | $8.79 | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | $6.41 | $3.82 | 59.6% | 40.3% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $19.69 | $11.17 | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| Operation Wildfire Case | $4.81 | $2.68 | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| Glove Case | $11.21 | $6.20 | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| Gamma Case | $4.96 | $2.71 | 54.6% | 45.3% |
| Operation Hydra Case | $27.00 | $14.54 | 53.9% | 46.2% |
| Gamma 2 Case | $5.01 | $2.64 | 52.7% | 47.4% |
| eSports 2014 Summer Case | $12.34 | $6.46 | 52.4% | 47.7% |
| Chroma 2 Case | $5.59 | $2.90 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Prisma Case | $3.42 | $1.77 | 51.8% | 48.3% |
| Shattered Web Case | $5.86 | $3.03 | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Shadow Case | $3.76 | $1.93 | 51.3% | 48.5% |
| Horizon Case | $3.79 | $1.94 | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | $5.51 | $2.77 | 50.3% | 49.8% |
| Revolver Case | $4.80 | $2.39 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Operation Broken Fang Case | $7.13 | $3.55 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Operation Breakout Weapon Case | $8.96 | $4.39 | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| Chroma Case | $6.62 | $3.21 | 48.5% | 51.6% |
| Huntsman Weapon Case | $9.03 | $4.35 | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Chroma 3 Case | $5.37 | $2.55 | 47.5% | 52.4% |
| Winter Offensive Weapon Case | $10.88 | $5.15 | 47.3% | 52.6% |
| Spectrum 2 Case | $4.83 | $2.27 | 47.0% | 53.1% |
| Falchion Case | $3.84 | $1.80 | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Prisma 2 Case | $3.37 | $1.57 | 46.6% | 53.5% |
| Spectrum Case | $5.46 | $2.54 | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Operation Riptide Case | $8.98 | $4.03 | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| Snakebite Case | $2.74 | $1.17 | 42.7% | 57.4% |
| Gallery Case | $3.02 | $1.28 | 42.4% | 57.7% |
| CS20 Case | $3.18 | $1.32 | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Danger Zone Case | $3.36 | $1.38 | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| Dreams & Nightmares Case | $3.34 | $1.31 | 39.2% | 60.7% |
| Fever Case | $3.02 | $1.07 | 35.4% | 64.7% |
| Operation Bravo Case | $51.69 | $16.91 | 32.7% | 67.3% |
| Recoil Case | $2.66 | $0.87 | 32.7% | 67.4% |
| eSports 2013 Case | $41.20 | $13.21 | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case | $100.10 | $31.52 | 31.5% | 68.5% |
| Clutch Case | $2.84 | $0.89 | 31.3% | 68.5% |
| Fracture Case | $2.82 | $0.84 | 29.8% | 70.1% |
| Revolution Case | $2.62 | $0.76 | 29.0% | 70.9% |
| Kilowatt Case | $2.57 | $0.70 | 27.2% | 72.6% |
The eSports 2013 Winter Case returns the most (68.8%) and the Kilowatt Case the least (27.2%). Every case needs the same $2.49 key, so on a cheap case the key is most of what you pay.
How it works
Average drop = sum over grades of (grade odds x average item value in that grade). Valve's rules, published for CS:GO in China in 2017, set the odds: each grade is 5 times rarer than the one below, knives and gloves come 2 for every 5 Coverts, every item within a grade is equally likely, and 1 drop in 10 is StatTrak where the item has one. The percentages above follow from those ratios. Valve doesn't say how floats are picked, so each float in a skin's range is treated as equally likely, which sets how often each wear drops.
Each item is valued at the median price across the 17 marketplaces we track, before fees, averaged over its wears and StatTrak. A version nobody is selling is left out and the item's other versions share its weight. Doppler knives count at their usual market price: phases like Ruby or Sapphire are rare and worth far more, so the knife grade's real value is a little higher than shown for cases with Dopplers. Selling on the Steam Market also costs a fee, so what you could actually cash out is lower.
The chance to pay for itself adds up every possible drop (each item, wear and StatTrak version) worth at least the cost to open. Calculators that give one odds figure for a specific StatTrak Factory New Covert usually skip a step: the 0.64% Covert chance is split between the case's Coverts, then 1 in 10 is StatTrak, then only the part of the float range below 0.07 is Factory New.
Cases on case opening sites
Opening in the game, you lose about 52% of what you spend on the median case at today's prices. We also measured 6,750 cases on 27 CS2 case sites from their own prices and drop chances: they keep 10.1% on average, and the lowest site average is 5.0% (CS2Skin). The full comparison is in our case site house edge study, and the sites themselves are ranked on our case opening sites page.
Want to try a case without paying? Open any case for free in the case simulator, or claim our free daily case.
Sources: odds from the rules published for CS:GO in China (2017); key price from the Steam store; item and case prices are the median across 17 marketplaces, updated 16 October 2026; case site edges measured by us (October 2026). Default case: Fever Case, the newest we price.
FAQ
- What are the odds of getting a knife in CS2?
- 0.26% per opening, about 1 in 385, for knives and gloves together. It's the same in every weapon case. The odds follow from the rules Valve published for CS:GO in China in 2017: each grade is 5 times rarer than the one below, and a knife or gloves is 2 for every 5 Coverts.
- What are CS2 case odds for each grade?
- Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, Knife or gloves 0.26%. Every item in a grade is equally likely, and 1 in 10 drops is StatTrak when the item has a StatTrak version.
- Is opening CS2 cases worth it?
- Not on average. At today's prices the best case we track, the eSports 2013 Winter Case, gives back 68.8% of what it costs to open, and the median case 47.5%. Every case returns less than the case plus the key, because the rare knife or gloves that would pay for it comes 385 openings apart on average.
- How is a case's expected value calculated?
- Add up, for every grade, its odds times the average value of its items. Each item's value is itself an average over its wears (weighted by how much of its float range each wear covers) and StatTrak (1 in 10). Subtract the case price and the key to get the expected profit, which is negative for every case.
- How much is a CS2 case key?
- $2.49 in the US Steam store, the same for every case. Prices in other currencies differ, so you can enter your own key price in the calculator.